Traders By Trade — The Pullback Is The Entry.

TRADERS BY TRADE

LEAPS Pullback Framework

The market already told you

TOO HIGH.

Every pullback since 2020 has been a signal, not noise.

EVERY ALL-TIME HIGH IS EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY A PULLBACK ◆ SINCE COVID: 10% · 20% · 30% · SOMETIMES MORE ◆ THAT PULLBACK HAS MARKED THE ENTRY FOR OUR HIGHEST-CONVICTION LEAPS POSITIONS ◆ THIS IS HOW WE FIND IT — CONFIRM IT — HOLD IT ◆

01 — THE SIGNAL

A confirmed high.
A defined pullback. That's the trigger.

We track every reported all-time high on the S&P 500 and on individual mega-caps, then measure the decline off that high. Cross a defined threshold — 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% — and the setup enters the watchlist. No threshold, no signal.

Threshold tiers tracked

Clean S&P signals since 2020

12+

Mega-cap signals, same period

S&P 500 INDEX

MEGA-CAP WATCHLIST

SECTOR BASKETS

02 — THE VEHICLE

The pullback, held long enough to matter.

A threshold cross tells you where — not how long it takes to work. We use LEAPS, options 12+ months to expiration, so the position has room to recover and run instead of decaying while you wait.

Choose the strike

At-the-money, slightly in-the-money, or a delta-target — every entry runs against the same three methods for comparison.

Hold 12+ months

Long-dated by design. The pullback thesis needs runway, not a fast trade.

Validate before entry

Technical threshold plus policy conviction. A pullback with no supporting signal is a lower-conviction setup — we flag it as one.

03 — WHERE THEY MEET

Pullback + policy = conviction.

A threshold cross alone is a technicals-only setup. When it lines up with an active policy tailwind — a contract award, a committee markup, a disclosed trade in the sector — that's when it moves from watching to conviction.

BACKTEST — HISTORICAL EXAMPLES SIMULATOR PREVIEW

Ticker	ATH → Trigger	Pullback	Policy Layer	TBT Signal
META	Feb 2022	-26.4%	Technicals-only	Watching
NVDA	Jan 2025	-22.8%	Defense/AI spend	Confirmed
TSLA	Jan 2024	-24.6%	Technicals-only	Watching
AMZN	FY 2022	-51.0%	Gov't cloud contracts	Confirmed

Historical backtest examples, figures approximate pending live data verification — not current holdings or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

04 — NOW

Run your own backtest.

Pick a threshold, pick a ticker, see every historical pullback that would have triggered — and what it would have paid, shares versus LEAPS, dollar for dollar. Get early access to the simulator.

Traders By Trade LLC provides trading education and public-data research tools. Nothing on this site is personalized investment advice, and Traders By Trade is not a registered investment advisor. Historical pullback and return figures are illustrative and approximate, pending verification against live market data. Policy-layer signals are sourced from public disclosures via Capitol Trades, Quiver Quantitative, and USASpending.gov. Options trading, including LEAPS, involves substantial risk, including total loss of premium, and is not suitable for every investor. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.